The evidence points to survival. If you look at everything the North Korean regime has done, it is reactionary. Every time the U.S. and South Korea have war games, the DPRK reacts, every time the U.S. issues a threat or slaps on sanctions, the DPRK reacts. In almost every instance, the North reacts with a missile launch or nuclear test.
Is the DPRK crazy and or unstable? Evidence suggests they are not and is shown by the facts; they have not attacked anyone thus far and even though they have clearly demonstrated the ability to attack Guam, they have not. Even though they clearly have the ability to hit Japan with a missile or level South Korea with nuclear weapons, they have not.
The North Koreans have asked the United States repeatedly and consistently for one thing; that the US STOP the annual war games. For the sake of exhausting every diplomatic option and avoiding a nuclear catastrophe, the United States should call their bluff and agree to stop the war games in return for a stop to all missile launches and an opening of direct talks between the DPRK and the U.S.
For the sake of security and a cooling off period, the U.S. can pull their forces back just enough to give the North some breathing room while retaining the capability to defend South Korea. If the U.S. does this and the North does not attack the South, that will serve as a confidence building measure and very clear evidence of their true intentions.
We have two very stark choices ; a costly war that none of the stakeholders can afford -OR- the U.S. can call the North on this idea of stopping the war games and find out what their true intentions are.
Last time – pre-Korean conflict, the communists thought they could invade the South and they would take over. Now – post Korean conflict, both China and the DPRK, know they will not have a free hand in doing that. China wants some kind of buffer between U.S. forces and China, the DPRK may just want to survive at this point. Strategic logic dictates; if the U.S.were to try a decapitation strike, it is not likely to succeed without destroying Soul and possibly starting a nuclear war and/or wider conflict w China.
If the U.S. takes the time to find out the true intentions of the North via a secure and verifiable agreement to stop the war games and begin two party negotiations, there is a greater chance of minimizing risk while maximizing chances of a successful transition to a VIABLE long term solution. A solution that works to guarantee security concerns of both China and the US while avoiding a nuclear and possibly global conflict.
The mechanics of such a deal are pretty straightforward – President Trump reaches out directly to Kim Jong Un and offers to stop the annual war games in return for a rock solid, enforceable agreement the North will not invade the South. This can be done by providing a carrot to the North with economic incentives via trade and assured survival of the Kim Jong-Un regime. This would enable the United States and South Korea to work with the North to rebuild their economy, allowing all sanctions to be lifted once a peace deal is signed between North and South. Two systems one Korea.
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