Mass demonstrations have erupted throughout Iran. The people have called on their government and religious leaders to stop wasting money abroad on wars and terrorism and instead, focus on the source of widespread frustration and anger – Iran’s faltering economy.
Iran is basically controlled by three entities; 1.) The Supreme Leader,(Ali Khamenei) who is both commander-in-chief of the armed forces and the provisional head of the three branches of the state ; the Judiciary, the Legislature, and the Executive. 2.) The Assembly of Experts, which oversees the Supreme Leader and confirms him in his position for a term of eight years, without limits to the number of terms. 3.) The President of Iran (recently re-elected and widely regarded as a reformer , Hassan Rouhani) who leads the executive branch as both cabinet chairman and deputy commander in chief of the military. Now this is where it gets interesting,. although his power is limited and overseen by both the Supreme Leader and Assembly of Experts, the President does have two critical titles and responsibilities that could directly challenge the Supreme Leader and lead a second Iranian revolution. Hassan Rouhani has the authority to declare a state of emergency, suspending all laws or enacting a state of martial law. He is also the head of the Supreme National Security Council.
The responsibilities of the council are defined by the constitution as :
- Determining the defense and national security policies of the country within the framework of general policies determined by the Leader.
- Coordination of activities political, intelligence, social, cultural and economic fields in the relating to general policies of defense and national security.
- Exploitation of materialistic and intellectual resources of the country for facing the internal and external threats.
So far President Rouhani has endorsed demonstrations, provided they are peaceful and helpful for the country. This is a very big step that could signal the President is directly challenging the authority of the religious leaders who control Iran.
Now, there are several big if’s that will determine whether this will lead to a second Iranian Revolution; if the President utilizes the 3 items above to declare martial law under a state of emergency and suspend all laws, will the military support him? One of the effective tools in the 1979 revolution was massive nationwide strikes. If the President can gain the support of the people to demonstrate peacefully and engage in massive nationwide strikes, this could rob the military of any excuse to crackdown since there would be little violence and it would possibly render the military powerless, since the military is ill equipped to fight an economic battle.
There are a lot of things that could happen within Iran in the coming weeks, hopefully the people will prevail and the world will see Iran turn away from the dark side of its past and free its people to live in peace and economic opportunity. That would be a sustainable and prosperous future for both Iran and the Middle East.
Image – By Hamed Saber – originally posted to Flickr as 6th Day – Green Condolence, CC BY 2.0, Link